I put the third and last bucket into a bank CD. Last week, the CD matured, freeing up my last planned cash infusion. Disastrous Mother’s Day sales results, however, are giving me pause. Should I still go ahead? Or should I cut my losses while I still have some money in the bank? Does the bloodbath mean anything at all? Today’s business news says that April retail sales were poor across the board. Maybe I’m just seeing the leading edge of recession.
Now that 2007 is nearly half over, let’s step back and look at what the Mother’s Day Bloodbath means for the rest of the year. My goals for 2007 were to:
- Double last year’s sales volume;
- Earn in salary the same amount that I will reinvest; and
- Turn a profit of $1
Double last year’s sales volume.
Doubling LY was an arbitrary goal. So last week I hit my spreadsheet to figure the smallest year-over-year increase that will still support my other two goals. I'd still need to beat LY by 75%. Without a marketing miracle, that is not going to happen. In fact, because I’m up against strong Fall benchmarks, it’s unlikely to happen even with a marketing miracle. This goal is an unambiguous failure.
Earn back as much as I will reinvest. Ignoring a lot of accounting details, this is pretty straightforward. In 2006,
Turn a profit of $1. Believe it or not, this isn’t out of reach. Many of my costs are scalable. As sales fall, so do expenses. My YTD loss so far is less than half of what it was at this time LY. If I can keep the operating loss from growing too badly as the summer drags by, I might still be able to make it up in December. It will be a pyrrhic victory if my token profit comes amid declining sales and shrinking paychecks. But at least it is something.
Next week, I’ll ponder what -- if anything -- all of this means.